Hillary Clinton and the Super-Delegates

Hillary Clinton’s big primary win yesterday in Pennsylvania kept her hopes alive for the Democatic Party nomination. She still trails Barack Obama in pledged delegates, but the gap has been closed. The big question is what impact the so-called “super-delegates” will have on who the final nominee with be. Super-delegates are made up of Democratic Senators, Representatives, party officials, former Presidents, etc. These delegates are not decided or assigned by the primary results. They can vote as they wish. Normally they don’t vote until the convention and there are several hundred of them. (Above: Hillary Clinton after Pennsylvania primary, AP Photo)

Most of all she has demonstrated she can carry the big states like Ohio, New York, Texas, California, Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania, all of which she won the primaries in.

If the goal of the Democratic Party is to win the general election against the strong Republican candidate John McCann, then they need to consider Hillary’s ability to win those states having the most Electoral College Votes. Remember that winning the popular vote has nothing to do with winning the presidency. The candidate winning the majority of Electoral Votes wins. Here is the breakdown of Electoral Votes up for grabs in the large states in the general election:

California – 55
Florida – 27
Michigan – 17
New York – 20
Ohio – 20
Pennsylvania – 21
Texas – 34
Total = 194

You can see that if a candidate can carry all the large states they would be well on the way to reaching the magic number of 270 Electoral Votes needed to win the presidency. This certainly doesn’t dimish the importance of those states having smaller numbers of Electoral Votes because they would have a major impact in a tight election.

The most populous states have the most Electoral Votes because the number of Electors a state has is equal to the number of Senators and Representatives that states sends to Washington as elected officials. The total number of Electoral Votes is 538. A winning candidate in the general election has to win 270 (one more than half).

By winning the primaries in those states with the most Electoral Votes available in the general election Hillary Clinton hopes to be able to convince the unpledged “super-delegates” to support her. If she can do that, she will win the nomination.

Democratic Roadshow Continues- Pennsylvania Primary

Tomorrow, April 22, is another big day in the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination. The present delegate standing according to CNN Election central <www.cnn.com> is,

Senator Barack Obama
Pledged delegates = 1437
Super-delegates = 226
Total = 1663

Senator Hillary Clinton
Pledged delegates = 1264
Super-delegates = 248
Total = 1512

Candidates need a total of 2,025 delegates to win the nomination. It is becoming clear neither candidate will win the required votes prior to the convention in August. Democratic National Chairman Howard Dean is pushing for the super-delegates to publicly declare their votes by July 1st to break the deadlock. Normally they would not vote until the convention. This would allow the party to unite behind the winning candidate earlier than August. Democrats need to get a candidate selected so they can focus on the general election scheduled for November 4, 2008.

Dean is also advocating for the Florida delegates to be seated at the convention and to divide their candidates proportionally based on the results of the Florida primary. The results of this primary were not recognized because Florida scheduled their primary early against the wishes of the Democratic Party. So far none of the delegates have been factored into the totals. Hillary Clinton won the Florida primary so she would get the majority of the over 200 delegates at stake. Michigan is another state that Clinton won and again it has not been seated, nor the delegates assigned.

It is a certainty if the race is not decided before the convention, the super-delegates will decide the race. They vote at the convention under existing rules. These 800 super-delegates consist of party leaders and officials such as congressmen, senators, etc. Howard Dean himself is a super-delegate.

The Pennsylvania primary will allocate 158 delegates based on the voting results tomorrow. Clinton is expected to be the winner, but the vote will likely be close, so each will pick up many delegates. Again nothing will be decided. One candidate or the other would have to win an overwhelming majority for any kind of knockout blow to be landed.

Barack and Hillary: Showdown in Texas and Ohio

March 4, this coming Tuesday – will it solve anything in the race for the Democratic nomination? Primaries and caucuses are taking place in Texas and Ohio, key states because there are large numbers of delegates at stake. Neither state is a winner take all election. The allocation of delegates to the candidates will be based on percentage of the vote in the primaries. This means that unless one candidate wins an overwhelming percentage of the votes the total delegate count will still be very close. Right now in the polls, Obama and Clinton are running virtually neck and neck in both states.

Texas has 193 delegates at stake in their primary and Ohio has around 100 so you can see there is a lot at stake here in the race to reach the magic number of 2,025 needed to win the nomination. It appears that this race might have to be decided at the convention it is so close.

Clinton desparately needs a convincing win in either Texas or Ohio or she may face elimination. Obama on the other hand might be able to take an insurmountable lead should he win a large percentage in one or the other. I don’t believe that will happen, but watch closely to see if one or the other can deliver a knockout blow. Democrats need to get this race decided so they can focus on the apparent Republican nominee John McCain, instead of fighting each other.

Barack or Hillary? Watch Ohio and Texas

It appears that the upcoming primaries in delegate-rich Ohio and Texas could determine the winner of the Democratic nomination for president. If it doesn’t then there is a strong possibility that the nominee will not be decided until the convention to be held August 25 – 28, 2008 in Denver, Colorado.

The delegate standings as of today from CNN Election Central,

Barack Obama
Pledged  -  1,140
Superdelegates – 161
Total – 1,301

Hillary Clinton
Pledged  – 1005
Superdelegates – 234
Total  -  1239

Total needed to win – 2,025

As you can see this is still very much a horse race, but they are entering the home stretch. March 4, 2008 is the date of the Ohio and Texas primaries. The results of these may be the turning point for the candidates. Both are now campaigning hard in those key states. Stay tuned to see who will be running for president against the apparent Republican nominee Senator John McCain.

Who Will Be President of the United States?

The Democratic race is still very much in doubt, but momentum seems to be with Barack Obama. The next big test is March 4th with delegates in  two key states Ohio and Texas at stake. These states both have large blocks of delegates. Should either Clinton or Obama win both of these it might decide the race. Here are the delegate standings to date from CNN Election central,

Hillary Clinton: Pledged 977, Superdelegates 234 for Total 1211

Barack Obama: Pledged 1096, Superdelegates 15 for Total 1253

Needed to Win Nomination: 2,025 (Superdelegates votes mean more than regular delegates. They could actually overrule the regular delegates. They are usually senators, congressmen, or other elected officials.) This is an extremely close race. There is a very strong possibility that the nominee will not be selected until the party convention.

For the Republicans it is very different. Senator John McCain is virtually assured of the nomination. It is only a matter of time. Here are the standings from CNN Election central,

John McCain: 801, unpledged 26 for total of 827

Mitt Romney: 286, unpledged 0 for total of 286 (Romney is now out, but has not endorsed any candidate.)

Mike Huckabee: 214, unpledged 3 for total of 217

Ron Paul: 16, unpledged 0 for total of 16

Needed to Win Nomination 1191. The Republicans do not have Superdelegates. Senator McCain’s lead is insurmountable now. He will be the nominee. He only has to select a vice presidential running mate. This will likely not be done until the convention, or until Huckabee and the others officially drop out of the race.

History will be made in Election 2008. One of the following will be historic,

1) John McCain will become the oldest person to ever become president.  McCain would be 73 years of age when inaugurated January 20, 2009 if elected.

2) Barack Obama will become the first African-American president if elected.

3) Hillary Clinton will become the first female president if elected. She would also become the first spouse of a former president to become president.

Someone recently said to me the race was boring. Far from it in my opinion.

Election 2008: Super Tuesday Looms

Here’s an update on the 2008 race for the White House. Super Tuesday, February 5th is fast approaching and will make the race clearer or cloudier. Over 20 States are holding primaries or caucuses with large numbers of delegates at stake for the candidates of both parties.

On the Democratic side there are now only two candidates left, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. John Edwards has left the race as of today. All other candidates are out. Edwards managed to win 62 delegates and it will be interesting to see which candidate he now throws his support behind. John Edwards might make an attractive vice presidential running mate for either Hillary or Barack. This even though he was John Kerry’s running mate in the 2004 election. The present delegate standing according to CNN is:

Hillary Clinton – 232
Barack Obama – 158

For the Republicans it is a much tighter race and no-one has emerged as the dominating front-runner. Realistically  there are now only two contenders, John McCain and Mitt Romney. The delegate count from CNN is:

John McCain – 97
Mitt Romney – 74
Mike Huckabee – 29
Ron Paul – 6

The remainder of the candidates are either out of the race or have no delegates. Rudolph Giuliani is the latest to drop out of the race.

To win the nomination the magic numbers are, Democratic 2,025, and Republican 1,191. The question in the minds of political pundits is, will the nomination battle take place at the conventions, or will the nominee be decided prior to the conventions this summer? Super Tuesday will go a long way in deciding the nominations.

Madame President?

Former First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton is running for President of the United States. Can she win? Will Americans accept a woman as Commander-in-Chief? Many questions remain and it is all unfolding in the caucuses and primaries now being held in the United States.

Hillary Clinton is a graduate of Wellesley College and Yale Law School. She then pursued a successful career in law and public service. She was the first First Lady to be appointed to an official position. She was chair of her husband’s Task Force on National Health Care Reform and testified before Congress as part of her duties. She also continued her own law career while First Lady.

Above: Hillary meeting with President Bush in her capacity as Senator from New York. 

After her husband left office in 2000, she ran for and was elected Senator from New York. She became the only First Lady to hold national office. Her record in the Senate is exemplary and she was re-elected in 2006 to a second term. Conservatives tend to oppose her for her more liberal stand on issues, but she has many supporters. Former President Clinton, her husband, is a staunch supporter.

She was born October 26, 1947 in Park Ridge, Illinois. Bill and Hillary were married October 11, 1975 and have one child, Chelsea who was born in 1980. Hillary was First Lady of Arkansas for her husband’s 12 years of service as governor of the state.

She is the first woman in American history to have a legitimate shot at winning the presidency. The American people expect toughness, compassion and first-class decision making from their leaders.

There is a precedent. Probably the best analogy is Margaret Thatcher who was the tough Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in the 1980s. When the upstart Argentine government invaded and occupied the Falkland Islands, a British colony, she responded with an naval armada that sailed to the islands and forcefully kicked them out. It would have been easy to just allow this small colony several thousands of miles away to be lost. Thatcher stood up for her principles and became known as the “Iron Lady” as a result. Clinton needs to demonstrate that she has some of those same qualities. After all the Constitution of the United States gives the President the power of the Commander-in-Chief of all military forces.

The election of 2008 is a wide-open affair. There are no incumbents, either president or vice president. attempting to get elected. Both major parties have fielded numerous candidates from all walks of life. There is a woman, a black, a Hispanic, a Mormon, a mayor, representatives, senators and governors all competing for their party’s presidential nomination.

Clinton’s recent comeback victory in the New Hampshire was impressive, but there are many more states to be won and many more delegates wooed before the winner emerges. Her chances are excellent because of the experienced team behind her in this campaign. Her husband’s sage advice will certainly not hurt her. Former President Bill Clinton has been campaigning for her, but not in an overbearing way. He appears when help is needed, then returns to the background just as quickly. I am sure he doesn’t want it to appear that he is running things. Hillary needs to show that she is the boss and the center of the campaign. So far she seems to be deftly using the assets of her former president spouse, but at the same time focusing on her own priorities.

It is a great opportunity for the Democratic Party. The Republican President Bush has been in power almost eight years. People will be looking for a change. Naturally they will be looking to the other party. Whoever the Republican nominee is must distance himself (no women running for them) from the Bush administration’s policies and show they would be a change of direction, otherwise getting elected will be a problem even if they win the nomination.

Electability is a major issue with the Democrats because they have been out of the White House for eight years.

I’m sure that when Hillary first considered a run for the White House she thought, great opportunity, not many major candidates to compete with. Now suddenly a young, charismatic challenger from her own party, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois is gathering momentum. The contest will be a real horse race. More in future posts.