John Kennedy Wins Nomination – 50 years ago

July 13, 2010

JFK and Caroline in August 1963-White House photo

I can’t let this anniversary pass. On this day in 1960, Senator John F. Kennedy won the Democratic nomination for president at their convention in Los Angeles, California.

Of course, he went on to win the general election in November 1960 by the slimmest of margins to become president-elect. On January 20, 1961 he was sworn in as the 35th president of the United States. He was also the youngest elected president to take office and the first person of the Roman Catholic faith to become president.

Tragically, he became the youngest president (46 years of age) to die in office when he was assassinated on November 22, 1963 while riding in a motorcade through downtown Dallas, Texas.


Hillary Clinton and the Super-Delegates

April 23, 2008

Hillary Clinton’s big primary win yesterday in Pennsylvania kept her hopes alive for the Democatic Party nomination. She still trails Barack Obama in pledged delegates, but the gap has been closed. The big question is what impact the so-called “super-delegates” will have on who the final nominee with be. Super-delegates are made up of Democratic Senators, Representatives, party officials, former Presidents, etc. These delegates are not decided or assigned by the primary results. They can vote as they wish. Normally they don’t vote until the convention and there are several hundred of them. (Above: Hillary Clinton after Pennsylvania primary, AP Photo)

Most of all she has demonstrated she can carry the big states like Ohio, New York, Texas, California, Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania, all of which she won the primaries in.

If the goal of the Democratic Party is to win the general election against the strong Republican candidate John McCann, then they need to consider Hillary’s ability to win those states having the most Electoral College Votes. Remember that winning the popular vote has nothing to do with winning the presidency. The candidate winning the majority of Electoral Votes wins. Here is the breakdown of Electoral Votes up for grabs in the large states in the general election:

California – 55
Florida – 27
Michigan – 17
New York – 20
Ohio – 20
Pennsylvania – 21
Texas – 34
Total = 194

You can see that if a candidate can carry all the large states they would be well on the way to reaching the magic number of 270 Electoral Votes needed to win the presidency. This certainly doesn’t dimish the importance of those states having smaller numbers of Electoral Votes because they would have a major impact in a tight election.

The most populous states have the most Electoral Votes because the number of Electors a state has is equal to the number of Senators and Representatives that states sends to Washington as elected officials. The total number of Electoral Votes is 538. A winning candidate in the general election has to win 270 (one more than half).

By winning the primaries in those states with the most Electoral Votes available in the general election Hillary Clinton hopes to be able to convince the unpledged “super-delegates” to support her. If she can do that, she will win the nomination.


Democratic Roadshow Continues- Pennsylvania Primary

April 21, 2008

Tomorrow, April 22, is another big day in the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination. The present delegate standing according to CNN Election central <www.cnn.com> is,

Senator Barack Obama
Pledged delegates = 1437
Super-delegates = 226
Total = 1663

Senator Hillary Clinton
Pledged delegates = 1264
Super-delegates = 248
Total = 1512

Candidates need a total of 2,025 delegates to win the nomination. It is becoming clear neither candidate will win the required votes prior to the convention in August. Democratic National Chairman Howard Dean is pushing for the super-delegates to publicly declare their votes by July 1st to break the deadlock. Normally they would not vote until the convention. This would allow the party to unite behind the winning candidate earlier than August. Democrats need to get a candidate selected so they can focus on the general election scheduled for November 4, 2008.

Dean is also advocating for the Florida delegates to be seated at the convention and to divide their candidates proportionally based on the results of the Florida primary. The results of this primary were not recognized because Florida scheduled their primary early against the wishes of the Democratic Party. So far none of the delegates have been factored into the totals. Hillary Clinton won the Florida primary so she would get the majority of the over 200 delegates at stake. Michigan is another state that Clinton won and again it has not been seated, nor the delegates assigned.

It is a certainty if the race is not decided before the convention, the super-delegates will decide the race. They vote at the convention under existing rules. These 800 super-delegates consist of party leaders and officials such as congressmen, senators, etc. Howard Dean himself is a super-delegate.

The Pennsylvania primary will allocate 158 delegates based on the voting results tomorrow. Clinton is expected to be the winner, but the vote will likely be close, so each will pick up many delegates. Again nothing will be decided. One candidate or the other would have to win an overwhelming majority for any kind of knockout blow to be landed.


Book Review – Brothers: The Hidden History of the Kennedy Years

March 31, 2008

brothersbookcvr.jpgBrothers: The Hidden History of the Kennedy Years

by David Talbot, Free Press a Division of Simon & Schuster, Inc., New York, NY, 2007

This is a riveting expose of the Kennedy era through the eyes of John Kennedy’s most trusted adviser and confidant, his brother Robert Kennedy and other close friends from that era. It begins with John F. Kennedy’s presidency in January 1961 and continues through his brother, Robert Kennedy’s assassination, on June 6, 1968.

Using startling new evidence and interviews, the author reveals for the first time that Robert Kennedy did not believe the Warren Commission’s lone gunman theory and was convinced his brother was the victim of a conspiracy. When he became president he intended to re-open the Warren Commission Investigation into his brother’s assassination.

 

Previously unknown and chilling facts about the era are uncovered. The historical characters come to life in the pages of this book. The reader will be pulled into the events as if they were there. For example, the Joint Chiefs-of-Staff of the American military planned to carry out a surprise nuclear attack on the Soviet Union in the early 1960s to remove the communist threat. President Kennedy asked them what American losses would result. The reply was, “only 20 or 30 million deaths, and a few major cities would be obliterated.” It was inconceivable to him they would seriously consider such a thing. During his entire administration the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the military were conducting operations that he would not sanction, yet they went ahead regardless.

Some key points made by the author put this era in context,

-          This was the height of the Cold War and the communist threat was the dominating fear of the CIA, FBI, and the military.

-          The use of nuclear weapons and nuclear war were not unthinkable concepts to the military.

-          The CIA was fixated on Fidel Castro’s Cuba and overthrowing its socialist government.

-          The assassination of Castro was actively pursued with the help of the Mafia and without Kennedy’s approval or knowledge.

Any and all attempts by Kennedy to ease tensions with the Soviet Union were strongly opposed by the military and others who said he was “soft” on communism and believed as a result he was endangering the security of the United States.

He was opposed in his attempt to assist Martin Luther King, Jr. and his drive for civil rights for black Americans. The resulting split in the Democratic Party seriously endangered the re-election of Kennedy in 1964. If he did not win the state of Texas in the election of 1964, he would not be re-elected, hence the urgency of his trip to Texas in 1963. He needed to attack extremism in America and promote his view of world peace that relied on peaceful co-existence, not nuclear confrontation.

Reading this book made me believe in conspiracy simply because he had so many powerful enemies who had the motive, means and opportunity to murder the president. The author answers another statement made by those who don’t believe in conspiracy – “someone would have talked”. Talbot documents the fact that many reliable witnesses have talked over the years. They have not been taken seriously, eliminated, or their testimony buried. Although the story is woven into the assassinations of both John and Robert, it is not a true assassination book. It doesn’t advance a specific conspiracy scenario, rather it summarizes the most significant theories on the subject. What he does do most effectively is lift the veil on the many enemies of the Kennedy presidency. Bottom line thesis the book seems to advance is that Kennedy’s approach to the Cold War was so revolutionary, sinister forces fought to end it.

To anyone interested in the history of this era, this book will be a page-turner. I read it in a couple of days and couldn’t leave it alone. Talbot has so well-researched and documented his story the reader will be thinking about it for a very long time. It reads like a thriller. He accomplished the goal of examining the Kennedy Era through the eyes of those who lived it. After reading this book I am amazed that nuclear war did not occur.

Previously unpublished interviews with Jackie Kennedy and Robert Kennedy concerning the events of November 22, 1963 and their aftermath are a highlight of the book. Jackie’s descriptions of the bloodbath inside the presidential Lincoln are especially gut-wrenching. These descriptions serve to force the reader to look beyond the Zapruder film and realize the human carnage that was taking place.

The final question posed by the author is, “Why should we care after all these years?”  His book argues that democracy is threatened by lies and untruths perpetuated by governments. For this reader, a child of the sixties, the Kennedy assassinations were the beginning of my cynicism of governments. This book reconfirms my beliefs.

The author, David Talbot is the founder and former editor-in-chief of Salon, one of the most respected on-line magazines. He has written for The New Yorker, Rolling Stone, and other publications. When Robert Kennedy was assassinated, Talbot was a sixteen-year old worker in Kennedy’s campaign for the presidency.

This was the most thought-provoking book I have read for a long time. I highly recommend it.

  


Barack and Hillary: Showdown in Texas and Ohio

February 29, 2008

March 4, this coming Tuesday – will it solve anything in the race for the Democratic nomination? Primaries and caucuses are taking place in Texas and Ohio, key states because there are large numbers of delegates at stake. Neither state is a winner take all election. The allocation of delegates to the candidates will be based on percentage of the vote in the primaries. This means that unless one candidate wins an overwhelming percentage of the votes the total delegate count will still be very close. Right now in the polls, Obama and Clinton are running virtually neck and neck in both states.

Texas has 193 delegates at stake in their primary and Ohio has around 100 so you can see there is a lot at stake here in the race to reach the magic number of 2,025 needed to win the nomination. It appears that this race might have to be decided at the convention it is so close.

Clinton desparately needs a convincing win in either Texas or Ohio or she may face elimination. Obama on the other hand might be able to take an insurmountable lead should he win a large percentage in one or the other. I don’t believe that will happen, but watch closely to see if one or the other can deliver a knockout blow. Democrats need to get this race decided so they can focus on the apparent Republican nominee John McCain, instead of fighting each other.


Who Will Be President of the United States?

February 14, 2008

The Democratic race is still very much in doubt, but momentum seems to be with Barack Obama. The next big test is March 4th with delegates in  two key states Ohio and Texas at stake. These states both have large blocks of delegates. Should either Clinton or Obama win both of these it might decide the race. Here are the delegate standings to date from CNN Election central,

Hillary Clinton: Pledged 977, Superdelegates 234 for Total 1211

Barack Obama: Pledged 1096, Superdelegates 15 for Total 1253

Needed to Win Nomination: 2,025 (Superdelegates votes mean more than regular delegates. They could actually overrule the regular delegates. They are usually senators, congressmen, or other elected officials.) This is an extremely close race. There is a very strong possibility that the nominee will not be selected until the party convention.

For the Republicans it is very different. Senator John McCain is virtually assured of the nomination. It is only a matter of time. Here are the standings from CNN Election central,

John McCain: 801, unpledged 26 for total of 827

Mitt Romney: 286, unpledged 0 for total of 286 (Romney is now out, but has not endorsed any candidate.)

Mike Huckabee: 214, unpledged 3 for total of 217

Ron Paul: 16, unpledged 0 for total of 16

Needed to Win Nomination 1191. The Republicans do not have Superdelegates. Senator McCain’s lead is insurmountable now. He will be the nominee. He only has to select a vice presidential running mate. This will likely not be done until the convention, or until Huckabee and the others officially drop out of the race.

History will be made in Election 2008. One of the following will be historic,

1) John McCain will become the oldest person to ever become president.  McCain would be 73 years of age when inaugurated January 20, 2009 if elected.

2) Barack Obama will become the first African-American president if elected.

3) Hillary Clinton will become the first female president if elected. She would also become the first spouse of a former president to become president.

Someone recently said to me the race was boring. Far from it in my opinion.


Romney Drops Out – McCain is Likely Nominee

February 7, 2008

romney.jpgThis just in – Mitt Romney has dropped out of the Republican race for the presidential nomination. This leaves Senator John MCain of  Arizona as the probable nominee of his party. The only competition left is Mike Huckabee who has limited support.

Romney surprised everyone with his announcement because he was in second place with 286 delegates and was likely to be a strong opponent for McCain who has 714 delegates. Mitt would likely not have won the nomination in the end though, and he has done the right thing for his party by eliminating a long battle. He gave as his reason the need to unite the Republican party against the Democrats as soon as possible.

I’m sure he also saw the Democrats being weakened by a long drawn out battle for their nomination. Because of this the correct strategy is to give up a losing battle, and unite the party behind McCain.

John McCann at 72 years of age will get a chance to win the White House. If he is elected he will be the oldest president to take office. By January 2009 he will be 73 years of age. This means that at the end of his first term in January 2013 he will be 77 years old, and if he were to go two terms would be 81 by the time he left office. My message to the Republicans is this, make sure you take great care in the selection of McCain’s vice presidential running mate. This person could easily be called upon to become president. I predict that if John McCain does become president, he will be only a one-term president. That would mean that four years from now another wide open election campaign might happen.

How about Mitt Romney as McCain’s running mate? I don’t think this is likely because McCain needs the support of the conservative wing of his party and Romney is certainly not conservative.

The other possibility, of course, is that the Democrats will win the White House with either Hillary or Barack becoming the president. I still think that is the most likely outcome.


Election 2008: Super Tuesday Looms

January 30, 2008

repdemlogos.jpgHere’s an update on the 2008 race for the White House. Super Tuesday, February 5th is fast approaching and will make the race clearer or cloudier. Over 20 States are holding primaries or caucuses with large numbers of delegates at stake for the candidates of both parties.

On the Democratic side there are now only two candidates left, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. John Edwards has left the race as of today. All other candidates are out. Edwards managed to win 62 delegates and it will be interesting to see which candidate he now throws his support behind. John Edwards might make an attractive vice presidential running mate for either Hillary or Barack. This even though he was John Kerry’s running mate in the 2004 election. The present delegate standing according to CNN is:

Hillary Clinton – 232
Barack Obama – 158

For the Republicans it is a much tighter race and no-one has emerged as the dominating front-runner. Realistically  there are now only two contenders, John McCain and Mitt Romney. The delegate count from CNN is:

John McCain – 97
Mitt Romney – 74
Mike Huckabee – 29
Ron Paul – 6

The remainder of the candidates are either out of the race or have no delegates. Rudolph Giuliani is the latest to drop out of the race.

To win the nomination the magic numbers are, Democratic 2,025, and Republican 1,191. The question in the minds of political pundits is, will the nomination battle take place at the conventions, or will the nominee be decided prior to the conventions this summer? Super Tuesday will go a long way in deciding the nominations.


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